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This combination of photos shows Republican presidential candidate former President Donald Trump, left, speaking at a campaign rally at Madison Square Garden, Oct. 27, 2024, in New York, and Democratic presidential nominee Vice President Kamala Harris, right, speaking at a campaign event at the Ellipse near the White House in Washington, Oct. 29, 2024. (AP Photo) -
Pennsylvania Governor Josh Shapiro takes a photo with Democratic candidates, volunteers and supporters at their Lebanon, N.H., headquarters on Wednesday, Oct. 30, 2024. Shapiro visited the state to campaign for presidential candidate Kamala Harris and highlight the gubernatorial campaign of former Manchester Mayor Joyce Craig against Republican Kelly Ayotte. (Valley News – James M. Patterson) -
Harris campaign volunteer Joan Rachlin, of Grantham, left, talks with Pennsylvania Governor Josh Shapiro, right, during his appearance at Democratic Party headquarters in Lebanon, N.H., on Wednesday, Oct. 30, 2024. Shapiro took part of his day away from campaigning for Harris in his home state to support former Manchester Mayor Joyce Craig’s run for governor against Kelly Ayotte in the Granite State. (Valley News – James M. Patterson)
With less than one week until Election Day, a new public opinion survey in swing state New Hampshire indicates Democratic presidential nominee Vice President Kamala Harris with a single-digit lead over former President Donald Trump, the Republican standard-bearer.
And the poll, from the Saint Anselm College Survey Center, indicates former U.S. Sen. Kelly Ayotte with a lower-single-digit advantage over former Manchester Mayor Joyce Craig in the Granite State’s high-profile gubernatorial contest.
According to the survey, conducted Monday and Tuesday and released on Wednesday, Harris stands at 51% support among likely voters in New Hampshire, with Trump at 46%. That margin is a bit closer than Harris’ seven-point lead in Saint Anselm’s previous poll, which was in the field earlier this month. The new survey indicates Trump’s consolidation of undecided voters may be behind the slight narrowing of the gap in the White House race.
Polls conducted over the past week by Emerson College and the NH Journal suggested a margin-of-error race in New Hampshire between Harris and Trump.
Republicans haven’t carried New Hampshire’s four electoral votes in 24 years. You have to go all the way back to then-Texas Gov. George W. Bush’s victory in the 2000 election. And Trump lost the first-in-the-nation presidential primary state in the general election by more than seven points four years ago, at the hands of President Joe Biden.
In the gubernatorial race to succeed GOP Gov. Chris Sununu – who isn’t seeking what would have been an unprecedented fifth two-year term in the Corner Office, the new poll indicates Republican nominee Ayotte with a 49%-46% advantage over Craig, the Democratic nominee.
Ayotte, a former state attorney general before running for the U.S. Senate in 2010, holds an advantage over Craig among undeclared (independent) voters 48%-45%. This, despite Trump trailing Harris among undeclared voters 51%-44%.
The gubernatorial race, the Democrats’ best chance to flip a GOP-held governor’s office, has attracted plenty of national attention and outside money.
The survey indicates Republicans continue to narrow the gap in the generic ballot, with the Democratic advantage now reduced to 49%-47%. The generic ballot asks respondents whether they would vote for the generic Democrat or Republican in the race for Congress.
“The generic ballot is tightening somewhat, but overall voters made up their minds after Biden dropped out and they’ve stuck with that decision,” Neil Levesque, the executive director of the New Hampshire Institute of Politics at Saint Anselm College, told the Monitor.
The president ended his 2024 re-election bid on July 21, amid a rising chorus of calls from within his own party to drop out following a disastrous late June debate performance against Trump, which reignited questions about the 81-year-old president’s physical and mental abilities to handle another four years in the Oval Office. Biden endorsed his vice president, who quickly officially replaced him atop the Democrats’ national ticket.
Saint Anselm College questioned 2,791 likely New Hampshire voters in their survey, which was conducted online. The poll’s overall sampling error was plus or minus 1.9 percentage points.