Defying the predictions of abortion advocates, providers and state lawmakers, the number of out-of-state patients who traveled to Vermont to obtain abortions did not increase, but in fact dropped, in the year after the U.S. Supreme Court overturned Roe v. Wade case precedent, according to preliminary data from the state Department of Health.

When the court’s conservative majority issued its Dobbs v. Jackson Women’s Health Organization decision last June, the country became a patchwork of disparate reproductive health laws. In states with so-called trigger laws, abortion was severely restricted or outright banned once the decision was issued. Other state legislatures, emboldened by the court ruling, worked quickly to impose new restrictions on the procedure in their respective states.

Vermont lawmakers had seen a post-Roe future coming and proactively worked to expand access to abortion within Vermont’s boundaries — not only with Vermonters in mind but also for out-of-state patients who they foresaw traveling from their respective states to obtain the procedure.

Experts never expected a tsunami of out-of-state patients, largely because Vermont is a remote, rural state that can be difficult or cost-prohibitive to reach from far distances. When the high court issued its Dobbs decision, Planned Parenthood of Northern New England predicted a modest 10% increase in out-of-state patients.

But according to preliminary data that VTDigger requested from the Vermont Department of Health, even that didn’t come to pass. As of this week, the department reports that from June 24, 2022 — the day of the Dobbs decision — through early June 2023, a total of 925 abortions were completed in Vermont. Of those, 154 were performed on non-Vermont residents — roughly 17%. (Due to reporting lag time, the department was unable to provide data from the latter portion of June 2023.)

By comparison, in all of 2021, 215 out-of-state patients obtained abortions in Vermont, representing nearly 21% of the 1,033 abortions completed in the state that year.

Since 2018, the proportion of out-of-state patients who obtain abortions in Vermont has remained relatively stable, hovering between 17 and 22% every year. But mirroring national trends, the total number of abortion patients in the state — both those who hail from Vermont and those who don’t — has trended downward.

In the year since Roe fell, a handful of patients traveled to Vermont from far-flung states where an abortion is difficult to obtain: Alabama, Louisiana, Tennessee and Texas, to name a few. But most out-of-state patients traveled from nearby states, where access to abortion is, in theory, about on par with Vermont: Connecticut, Maine, Massachusetts, New Hampshire, New York and Rhode Island. More than half of all out-of-state patients came from New Hampshire, mirroring past years’ trends.

Vermont’s clinics had anticipated such a trend, according to Lucy Leriche, vice president of Vermont public affairs for Planned Parenthood of Northern New England. “There are a lot of reasons why people from out of state are getting an abortion in our region,” she said, speaking of Vermont as well as New Hampshire and Maine.

Sometimes northern New England is where the patient has a family member or support system to assist in the process, Leriche said. Perhaps they are fleeing a domestic violence situation. They could be attending college here but are a legal resident elsewhere. Maybe they just want more privacy. Or perhaps, if they hail from a nearby state that has more patients, such as New York or Massachusetts, they couldn’t get an appointment at home. A domino effect in appointment availability can ensue, Leriche said.

Planned Parenthood — the largest provider of abortions in Vermont and nationwide — declined to provide state-specific data on its own out-of-state patients, citing concerns over patient privacy and safety. But in Maine, New Hampshire and Vermont combined, the organization earlier this month reported a 12.5% increase in out-of-state patients “seeking abortion at our health centers,” according to a June press release.

Beyond patient data, Leriche said the impact of the Dobbs decision was palpable in other ways. Planned Parenthood of Northern New England’s call center was “inundated” immediately after the ruling was made, she said. Online, the organization’s website had its largest one-day spike in web traffic on June 24, 2022, the day of the court’s ruling. “That is, I think, a really strong indicator of the response,” Leriche said.

The Dobbs decision “is very destabilizing and very anxiety-producing and causes a lot of confusion and anxiety and fear and panic,” Leriche said.

Leriche said the organization is trying to keep its messaging on target, emphasizing that abortion remains legal in Vermont. This legislative session, state lawmakers passed landmark shield laws protecting Vermont-based abortion providers — and to some extent, patients who travel to the state — from out-of-state abortion prosecutions or investigations.