On April 22, the pristine calm of Baisaran Valley near Pahalgam, Kashmir, was ruptured by violence of the most brutal kind. In what is now being called the deadliest civilian-targeted terrorist attack in India since 2008, 26 tourists, including a child and a Nepalese national, were murdered in cold blood by militants claiming allegiance to The Resistance Front (TRF), a known proxy of the terrorist group Lashkar-e-Taiba of Pakistan.

This was not just an act of horrendous terror. For India, it was a catastrophic intelligence failure, a security breach of the highest order, and a national tragedy with profound strategic consequences. India, with one of the world’s largest standing militaries and a formidable intelligence network, failed to foresee an attack in one of the most heavily patrolled and sensitive regions of the country.

This is India’s “zero-day” event — a term borrowed from cybersecurity, referring to a previously unknown vulnerability exploited by attackers before a patch can be issued. Kashmir’s picturesque façade had, perhaps, lulled policymakers into a misplaced sense of normalcy. But beneath it, as this attack showed, lay dormant terror networks waiting for their opportunity.

The question India must now ask — calmly, seriously and strategically — is this: How can India predict and prevent the next zero-day attack? The answer lies not just in more boots on the ground, but in more intelligence, more integration and more technology. India must now make a decisive shift toward AI-enhanced national security — learning from global counterparts like the United States and Israel, who have integrated artificial intelligence deeply into their counterterrorism frameworks.

India’s counterterrorism strategy remains a mix of centralized intelligence agencies — Research and Analysis Wing (R&AW), Intelligence Bureau (IB), National Investigation Agency (NIA) — and military deployment in volatile areas like Jammu and Kashmir. But this system is often reactive, bureaucratic, and siloed. It responds well to threats but does not proactively hunt for threats and stop them before they strike.

Moreover, the focus in Kashmir over the past few years has tilted toward infrastructure development and tourism promotion. While such soft power strategies are essential, they must be accompanied by upgraded surveillance and threat anticipation mechanisms, especially in remote, high-value areas. The Baisaran Valley, accessible only by foot or horseback and surrounded by thick forest, became an unguarded zone — a perfect target for asymmetric warfare. The terrorists understood this. India didn’t.

Israel, a country with a fraction of India’s resources but a far more fraught security environment, offers one model. Its intelligence agency, Unit 8200, leverages AI to analyze phone metadata, satellite imagery and online communication to detect behavioral anomalies. These are cross-referenced with historical patterns of insurgent activity, allowing the Israeli Defense Forces (IDF) to preempt attacks with precision. Its smart border systems, powered by thermal imaging and computer vision, are capable of detecting and classifying movement — human, animal, or vehicular — within seconds. In high-risk zones, these tools are not experimental; they are operational doctrine.

The United States, particularly through its Department of Defense’s Project Maven, uses AI to analyze drone footage in real time. This allows for the identification of vehicles, weapons and human activity in conflict zones without delay. Combined with generative AI’s natural language processing (NLP) systems that monitor open-source intelligence — forums, encrypted platforms, and deep web chatter — U.S. counterterrorism forces can often intercept plots before they become operations.

Additionally, agencies like the National Security Agency (NSA) and Department of Homeland Security (DHS) employ predictive policing tools that flag domestic and foreign threats based on behavioral analytics and travel history — tools that have become controversial but effective in high-stakes national security scenarios.

India, with its vast pool of engineers, data scientists, and AI startups — not to mention military Defence Research and Development Organisation — has the capacity to build and deploy such systems. What’s missing is strategic urgency and political coordination.

Adopting AI isn’t just about buying new software or hardware. It requires institutional transformation. India should establish a National AI Command Center — a nodal agency integrating data from R&AW, IB, state police, satellite feeds and cyber intelligence. This agency must operate with both speed and accountability, combining AI with human judgment.

Equally important is the question of civil liberties. AI systems can be misused or biased. There must be legal safeguards, ethical frameworks and parliamentary oversight, particularly when surveillance extends into civilian domains.

The tragedy in Baisaran Valley must not be reduced to a news cycle. It should be treated as a wake-up call — a signal that India’s security model must evolve from manpower-intensive response to technology-led preemption. In the 21st century, terrorism wars are won not just by armies, but by algorithms. The next terrorist attack is being planned in silence. India’s response must begin in urgency.

Diplomatic measures are necessary, but not sufficient. India’s diplomatic retaliation post-Pahalgam — expulsions, visa cancellations, Indus Water Treaty suspensions — sends a strong geopolitical signal. But it does little to stop the next attack. The Pahalgam attack was not only a tragedy; it was a test of India’s ability to use modern AI technology to foresee and forestall, to nip evil in the bud. India failed to foresee this zero-day event. But India must not fail again.

A new doctrine must emerge — one that places AI at the center of national security, not just as a tool, but as a philosophy. From space-based surveillance to drone ISR, from behavioral analytics to cyber intelligence, AI can help India do what it could not do in Pahalgam: see it coming.

Narain Batra hosts the podcast America Unbound. On May 13, he will deliver a talk, “Artificial Intelligence and American National Security”, at the Osher Institute at Dartmouth College. He lives in Hartford.