Beijing
Signs of a steep drop in birth numbers had already emerged, as China’s major cities disclosed their birth figures for 2018. Wenzhou, a manufacturing hub and wealthy coastal city, saw its birth number drop by 15.7 percent, the lowest in 10 years. Its neighboring city, Ningbo, estimated births declined by about percent.
A top Chinese research institution projected the population could start shrinking as soon as 2027 — three years earlier than expected — if the birth rate held steady at 1.6 children per woman. The population — at 1.39 billion in 2017, and the world’s largest — could fall to 1.172 billion by 2065, it said. In 2016, China eased its family planning policies to allow parents to have as many as two children, instead of one. The nation’s parliament struck “family planning” policies from the latest draft of a sweeping civil code slated for adoption in 2020.
