Concord — Near the end of his State of the State speech to a crowded House chamber, Democratic Gov. John Lynch highlighted one of his top priorities: a 28-point "Child Protection Act" to toughen penalties for sex offenders.

"Nothing, nothing is more important than keeping our children safe. It's time to send a clear message: If you prey on our children in New Hampshire, we're going to send you to prison — and we're going to keep you there for a long time," Lynch said in the mid-January speech, drawing a standing ovation.

Two weeks earlier, 118 miles to the north, Republican Gov. Jim Douglas asked Vermont lawmakers at his State of the State address to pass his "Safe Communities" legislation, which includes a civil commitment provision to detain untreated sexual predators and some violent offenders even after their prison sentences expire.

"These criminals are the worst of the worst: repeat rapists, child molesters and murderers who, left untreated, represent a very high likelihood to re-offend once released," Douglas said.

The tough talk from both governors played to fears sweeping statehouses, and seeping into living rooms, throughout the country.

But some lawmakers, academics and attorneys who have struggled with how best to deal with sex offenders cautioned that politics should not trump sound policy, especially when statistics show that sex crimes have declined nationwide over the past decade. And while rates of reported rapes have increased in New Hampshire and, more recently, in Vermont, they still remain well below national levels.

"It's easy to get on this bandwagon," said New Hampshire state Rep. Lee Hammond, a Lebanon Democrat on the House Criminal Justice and Public Safety subcommittee that is grappling with Lynch's proposal. "You have every parent saying sex offenders are horrible, but they don't stop and think through all the aspects of it, particularly as it applies to young people (who are charged as offenders) and what constitutes a sex offense."

"Going after sex offenders is certainly a politically correct position to take, but as we have found across America, in the long run you end up being tough on the taxpayers by incarcerating people for long sentences who eventually get out with no treatment," added Vermont Republican state Sen. Vince Illuzzi, who also serves as the Essex County state's attorney.

The debates in New Hampshire and Vermont are part of a national trend, with many states passing tougher penalties against sex offenders over the past decade. From 1994 to 2004, the rate of child sexual abuse cases reported to social service agencies dropped by about 44 percent; some criminologists suggest that increased incarceration has been a factor.

In California, for instance, after 7-year-old Megan Kanka was raped and killed by a convicted child molester who lived across the street from her family, who were unaware of his criminal past, lawmakers passed "Megan's Law," giving the public more information about sex offenders now living in the community.

In 2004, California, Tennessee, Georgia, Washington, New York and Maine all toughened laws dealing with sex crimes against children.

And last year, after 9-year-old Jessica Lunsford was abducted from her Florida bedroom, raped and buried alive, allegedly by a convicted sex offender, Florida passed the Jessica Lunsford Act, which calls for a minimum 25-year sentence for child molesters, among other provisions. Several other states are rapidly following suit with versions of what is being called "Jessica's Law."

In Alabama last July, Attorney General Troy King even wore an electronic monitoring bracelet for several days, unstrapping it only after the legislature passed a law with lengthy sentences for sex offenders and monitoring after they leave prison.

King might even have been considered a moderate in the debate. He urged lawmakers not to include an amendment requiring mandatory surgical castration for sex offenders who attack children under 12, a measure supported by a former Alabama governor. (King counseled that it could lead to the entire law being declared unconstitutional.)

The Alabama debate was fueled, in part, by scrutiny from Fox News talk-show host Bill O'Reilly, who is campaigning to get versions of Jessica's Law passed in every state, even providing easy e-mail links to each governor's office on his Web site (the hyperlink reads "outrage funnel").

And the campaign against sex offenders is, by no means, limited to the United States. In January, British authorities said they would improve background checks on teachers after a national furor erupted when a registered sex offender was found to be working as a gym teacher.

The media scrutiny hit Vermont in January when O'Reilly zeroed in on Vermont District Court Judge Edward Cashman, who initially gave a 60-day jail sentence to admitted child molester Mark Hulett. Because Vermont at that time did not offer in-prison treatment for such "low-risk" offenders, the judge said a short sentence was the best way to get Hulett the community-based treatment that would reduce his risk of reoffending.

With phrases like "protecting evil" and "Darfur vs. Vermont," O'Reilly pounded the state for a few weeks. (Cashman eventually increased the sentence to a minimum of three years after Vermont corrections officials promised to provide treatment for Hulett and other offenders deemed "low-risk.")

At one point, lawmakers' e-mail accounts in Montpelier were too clogged with incoming mail to navigate. And Douglas, the Vermont governor, called for Cashman to resign.

While Douglas and Lynch, who are both up for re-election in November, filed their legislation months before the Cashman controversy, some observers said politics was behind their State of the State pronouncements.

"I view that as a political gesture. When's the next election?" said Carol Bohmer, a sociologist and visiting associate professor of government at Dartmouth College. "Everybody does it. The exploitation of fears about criminals is a bipartisan issue. It also costs nothing (in the short term), except when you build more prisons."

But others are more forgiving.

"It's like a no-brainer politically. It makes both political and policy sense for the governor (Lynch) to be on this one," said Andrew Smith, director of the UNH Survey Center. "If you are seen as being weak on prosecuting sex offenders, you could be in deep political trouble."

Smith said the emphasis on tougher legislation is responding to concerns from parents. "It's not surprising that you would be out there for just plain policy issues," he said. "This has been an ongoing issue for years and years, especially with the growth of the Internet and the luring of children over the Internet. It's grown in visibility, not necessarily in frequency."

In Vermont, Douglas' "Safe Communities" package would enact a civil commitment law to keep untreated sex offenders, as well as violent criminals, in detention even after their sentence had been served.

He also wants to expand "special investigation units" with expertise in sex offenses around the state; criminalize sexual contact between school employees and students; and expand the state's sex-offender registry on the Web to make it "user-friendly" for parents.

Though it is not part of his legislation, Douglas has also signaled that he would sign a bill that includes mandatory minimum sentences for sex offenders were it to reach his desk.

In a phone interview earlier this year, Douglas defended his emphasis on sex-offender legislation, maintaining that the number of sexual assaults in Vermont has increased recently, even though the overall crime rate has dropped significantly.

"In relative terms, this is a category of crime that is more troublesome because it's going against the trend," Douglas said. "People are very concerned, especially when young children are involved. Society has a responsibility to protect them and that's one I take seriously."

Douglas is correct that the rate of reported rape rose in 2004 after years of decline. However, law enforcement records show that the rate of reported rape against women and girls in Vermont (and New Hampshire) has stayed at around 80 percent of the national rate in recent years. Douglas acknowledged as much, even as he alluded to the Cashman dispute.

"We're a very safe state in relative terms, and we need to keep all this in perspective. That's a message I believe we need to get out to a wider audience," he said. "We're hearing about a certain case ... but we're a safe state, and third-safest in the nation, according to one stat I saw, and no one should fear living or visiting here."

Still, Douglas also said civil confinements, which would require a secure facility beyond Corrections Department facilities, are needed.

"Because we know who's in jail now, and when each one is likely to be released, over the next decade there is likely to be a number of offenders who have been convicted of serious sexual assault crimes who are scheduled to be released," he said. "We can't know at this point whether they will be successfully treated and safe for re-entry into the communities, but we don't know that they're not, and that's why I think it's a proposal worth enacting."

In New Hampshire, Lynch's plan would give prosecutors the option to seek a mandatory minimum sentence of 25 years for someone convicted of molesting a child under 13; allow civil commitment of sexual predators; enable local communities to prohibit sex offenders from living within 1,000 feet of a school, day-care center or park used by children; and even implement a GPS monitoring system of sex offenders by July 2008.

A Valley News analysis of New Hampshire Department of Children and Families data found almost 50 percent fewer substantiated reports of sexual abuse of children younger than 18 in 2005 than in 1994.

The rate of rape and sexual assault of women and girls reported to New Hampshire law enforcement has increased steadily since 1997. However, experts say the increase may be due, at least in part, to increased reporting by local police departments.

In an interview earlier this year, Lynch said data suggesting the rate of sex abuse against children may be declining were beside the point.

"I think if there's even one child involved, or one child who could be saved from the legislation, then I think it's worth it," Lynch said. "I think even one child being molested in New Hampshire is too many."

Lynch also said lengthy sentences are not only warranted, but needed.

"I really do believe that the acts of these criminals, and they themselves, are just despicable," Lynch said. "And I've heard too many stories of child molesters who rape a young girl. They are in prison for five or six years, and they get out and do it again."

Asked for substantiation, his office cited at least four cases in recent years where men who had been convicted of sexually assaulting children served short prison terms and then were arrested and convicted of other sex crimes involving children.

Reaction to the two governors' proposals is mixed, even among lawmakers steeped in the issue.

The Vermont House late last month rejected the civil commitment proposal but did pass a measure that would toughen the state's response for some sex crimes. The Senate Judiciary Committee, which is expected to tackle the bill later this month, may try to add mandatory minimum sentences to the equation, according to panel Chairman Dick Sears, a Bennington Democrat.

"I think (mandatory minimums) let Vermonters know that we're serious about sex offenders, that we're serious abut providing some form of sanction for that behavior, (and) that doesn't have such disparate sentencing throughout the state," Sears said last month.

In Concord, the House Criminal Justice and Public Safety Committee is slated to vote on legislation on Wednesday that will likely include much of Lynch's package, though it may lessen some of the mandatory minimum sentences he is seeking, according to Hammond, the Lebanon Democrat.

State Rep. John Tholl Jr. — a Whitefield Republican and retired State Police sergeant who now serves as the part-time police chief of Dalton, N.H. — said he supports Lynch's proposal to give prosecutors discretion in seeking the 25-year mandatory minimum sentence.

"I like the way it's worded in his bill," said Tholl, who is also on the Criminal Justice subcommittee working on the bill. "When you have a perpetrator who is in the family, and the family says 'this is bad, but it's not that bad,' he doesn't have to go to jail for 25-years-to-life."

But Tholl also said he would like to see a classification system for sex offenders, which he said Lynch's bill does not propose, to separate less serious offenders, such as ones convicted of indecent exposure, from more dangerous offenders, such as child rapists.

"I'm going to tell you right now that every sex offender out there is not a danger to society. There are many that are," said Tholl, who said he discovered a few years ago that one of three registered sex offenders in the small town of Dalton, population 927, was volunteering to teach chess to children at the elementary school.

"Those types of people need to be watched," Tholl said. "He wasn't breaking the law, but at the time, there was no requirement for a background investigation of volunteers."

Tholl also said he would not ascribe political motivations to Lynch's proposal. "The governor tends to come across as a very serious individual. I would not be laying a political label on this issue," Tholl said.

But Hammond — a Navy veteran and former school counselor — said he believes Republicans and Democrats alike are advancing the issue, at least in part, because of politics. The New Hampshire legislation follows a highly publicized series of articles on sex offenders by the New Hampshire Union Leader, which remains influential in Concord and the southern part of the state.

"I see it as highly political, myself, and it is bipartisan, that's for sure," said Hammond, who noted that Attorney General Kelly Ayotte is also pushing for the legislation.

"It's one thing to toss the book at violent rapists," Hammond said. "It's another thing to take a senior in high school, who might be dating a freshman in high school, and put that person away for several years for maybe having inappropriately touched somebody, and not even had intercourse with her.

"They come out with a record and are labeled a sex offender. What we have to do is sort through this and at least get some categories of degrees of sex offenses," Hammond continued.

He also questioned the civil commitment proposals, which typically require review by a committee and then court approval. "I'm a little uncomfortable as to who calls the shots," Hammond said. "I'm not sure how I see this playing out. We don't have the facilities to deal with people."

Former Windsor County state Sen. Will Hunter of Cavendish, Vt., the editor and publisher of Vermont Lawyer and Trial Court Reporter, also expressed wariness about the drumbeat for tougher sex offender laws.

Though tougher sentences might keep convicted sex offenders in prison — away from other potential victims — for a longer period of time, Hunter said they would not serve as a deterrent to child molesters.

"Without a doubt, threat of a longer sentence is not going to deter people whose thought process is as warped as (that of) people who commit these crimes," said Hunter, who in his former law practice represented some sex offenders and now serves as a part-time minister at Perkinsville Community Church.

Hunter also cautioned against the "personalization of law" by basing new legislation on emotions triggered by one case, no matter how horrific, rather than relying on the testimony of experts and hard data.

"The idea of 'Jessica's Law' is a really bad idea, because it says we are going to pass legislation that affects everybody, but we are doing it from the perspective of not only one person, but just one part of the intricate equation that has to be part of the public policy (discussion)," Hunter said. "Ultimately, what are you going to have? 'Harry's Law?' 'Joe's Law?' ... That's not how you make public policy."

Bohmer, the Dartmouth professor, said the public concern about sex offenders is also fueled by a misconception that molesters are lurking behind every corner, waiting to attack a child at random.

"Rates of child molestation are much higher with people that you know," she said. "When people think of sex offenders, they don't think of the typical sex offender."

Illuzzi, the Republican Vermont state senator and state's attorney, said he opposes mandatory minimum sentences because they ignore the complex reasons why sentences vary. He also called Vermont's treatment program for sex offenders a "national model" and said its impact on sex offenders amenable to such counseling lessens the load on the rest of the criminal justice system.

"I'd rather have an effective treatment program that combines rehabilitation with punishment, as opposed to a strictly punitive sentence, knowing that some day the offender is going to be released," Illuzzi said.

Recidivism rates of sex offenders range from less than 5 percent to more than 50 percent, multiple studies have shown, depending on the type of crime and other factors, such as treatment while incarcerated.

Incest abusers are less likely to re-offend than pedophiles who attack children at random, studies have shown. And treatment appears to help some offenders. According to a study of 195 adult male sex offenders in Vermont, the sexual re-offense rate for offenders who completed the state's treatment program was 5.4 percent, versus a 30 percent rate for those who refused treatment or did not complete it.

But experts also raise several important cautionary notes about such studies: the sample size is small, and sex crimes of offenders who are released into the community may be underreported.

Douglas said treatment should play an important role in Vermont, but so, too, should such factors as protecting the public, "exacting a fair penalty from the offender," and isolating a dangerous criminal from the general public.

"Experts tell our Agency of Human Services that treatment can be effective. It requires a receptive offender, and secondly, the most effective time, we're told, is close to the date of release," Douglas said.

In New Hampshire, Lynch said he does see a role for treatment, but said "the data suggest that there is a high propensity for a child molester to commit the crime of child molestation again."

Lynch, in his State of the State speech, also called for planning to begin on the expansion of the state prison in Berlin, N.H., a project that ultimately — but not immediately — would cost the state millions of dollars.

Hammond said the entire debate reminds him of another "tough-on-crime" issue that has filled prison cells, but which also remains the subject of much debate.