Upper Valley recyclables eventually could be headed for a landfill rather than reuse if the plummeting prices for things such as scrap metal and paper don't turn around, according to one industry expert, but local recycling officials were skeptical it would come to that.

Since their summer peak, the price for some recyclables has dropped more than 90 percent, said Marc Morgan, Lebanon's solid waste manager. Metal scrap fell from $265 per ton a few months ago to $20 or less today; paper fell from $115 per ton to $15 or less; plastic fell from $900 per ton to $40 or less; and aluminum fell from $2,100 per ton to about $600.

“The amount of revenue for many towns has dropped dramatically,” said Michael Durfor, interim executive director at Northeast Resource Recovery Association, a nonprofit organization based in Epsom, N.H., that helps many New England and Upper Valley towns and municipalities, including Lebanon, trade recycling materials.

And if prices continue to tank and towns begin to lose money?

“They'll end up land-filling it,” he said.

In Hartford, the vanishing profits might contribute to town officials laying off a pair of part-time workers.

Hartford's Public Works Director Rich Menge said the lost revenues, combined with town employees' rising health care rates and increased operational costs, has driven him to recommend the layoffs, and he's suggested opening the recycling center and transfer station, where trash is compacted, for just five days each week rather than six.

In the fiscal year ending this past June, Menge said the town's recycling program generated $55,000 in revenue, but for the upcoming year's budget, he’s anticipating just a $33,000 profit. Now, for revenues to reach that projection, he said, market prices would have to recover.

Greater Upper Valley Solid Waste Management District handles recycling contracts for 10 smaller towns in the area, and Fred Moody, the organization's executive director, said although those towns also have felt the price crunch, land-filling reusable goods still isn't a financially plausible move. Dumping one ton of material into a landfill costs about $70, on average, and until towns have to pay more than that to move material, he said recycling probably would continue.

Despite Hartford's lost income, Menge said he would only recommend canceling the recycling program as a last resort, and Morgan of Lebanon said he refused to consider the possibility.

“There's no way I would do that,” Morgan said. “We'll just wait it out.”

Thankfully, Morgan said, garbage disposal fees paid by residents, not revenues from selling recyclables, fund the recycling program. Hartford runs under the same system.

Morgan also said town officials haven't considered laying off members of the department.

The demand has plunged so far that Lebanon's recycling center, which ships about 2,000 tons of recyclables each year and also takes materials from Hanover and Plainfield, has two tractor-trailers and a growing amount of storage space filled with more than 70 tons of paper the center hasn't been able to sell.

“I've not been able to move paper for a month,” he said, adding that he hasn't shipped paper domestically for three months. His last load was trucked to Canada and garnered $15 per ton. Since then, Morgan hasn't located a single buyer and has even paid to remove some items.

He's created temporary storage areas under tarps outside the facility on Plainfield Road for materials unaffected by the weather, and Morgan said the town owns enough property in the area that until the recyclables can be transported off site, the mounting materials won't affect public areas.

Aside from the dwindling national economy's impact, Morgan said, China is buying fewer recycled goods after leading the market for the last several years. Now that the Beijing Olympics has ended and the country's demand for building materials has essentially halted, moving reusable products has become even more difficult.

Because the prices in early 2008 were so high, the Lebanon center brought in $92,000 -- about $40,000 more than projected -- in the first eight months of this year. That surplus has made the recent drop off easier to manage, and in case things don't improve, Morgan has projected no revenue for next year's budget.

For Durfor, solving the challenge falls more on how products are made rather than the prices people will pay for them. He argues that manufacturers should create products that are either biodegradable or could be used for multiple purposes.

“The alternative is to find a real solution,” Durfor said. “Otherwise, we're going to be sitting in a stockpile full of materials that we can't get rid of.”

John Woodrow Cox can be reached at 603-727-3305 or jcox@vnews.com.